每經AI快(kuai)訊，中國銀河10月11日發布研報稱：給予社會服務行業推薦（維持）評級。

板塊表現：本周社服行業漲跌(die)幅為-0.4%，在(zai)所有31個行業中周漲跌(die)幅排名第5位。各細(xi)分板塊漲跌(die)幅分別(bie)為：酒店餐飲+2.2%，專業服務(wu)-0.1%，旅游(you)及(ji)景(jing)區-1.5%，教育-3.7%。

重(zhong)點公告&事件：（1）國(guo)(guo)慶假期(qi)全國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)旅(lv)(lv)游(you)(you)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)游(you)(you)4.22億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)人次(ci)，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)旅(lv)(lv)游(you)(you)收入2872.1億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)；（2）旅(lv)(lv)游(you)(you)節拉動(dong)(dong)上海(hai)(hai)地(di)(di)區文旅(lv)(lv)全量消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)，交易總金額(e)超743億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。核心觀點：免(mian)(mian)稅：前三(san)日(ri)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)邊際向好，銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)降幅低于(yu)機(ji)場(chang)客流。海(hai)(hai)南(nan)省商務廳(ting)10月(yue)(yue)3日(ri)提供的(de)統計數據顯示(shi)，9月(yue)(yue)30日(ri)至10月(yue)(yue)2日(ri)，海(hai)(hai)南(nan)10家離島(dao)免(mian)(mian)稅店(dian)(dian)三(san)天進(jin)店(dian)(dian)人數近(jin)15萬人次(ci)，銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)超6.3億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，日(ri)均(jun)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)達2.1億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同比2021年下降18%，降幅好于(yu)機(ji)場(chang)客流。但受(shou)三(san)亞(ya)3日(ri)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)現(xian)病例影(ying)響，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)(mian)三(san)亞(ya)國(guo)(guo)際免(mian)(mian)稅城二(er)期(qi)閉店(dian)(dian)至10月(yue)(yue)6日(ri)重(zhong)新開放(fang)，預計對剩(sheng)余假期(qi)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)恢復(fu)(fu)產生影(ying)響。整體而言，今年1月(yue)(yue)以(yi)來疫情平穩期(qi)間(jian)(jian)，離島(dao)免(mian)(mian)稅銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)恢復(fu)(fu)均(jun)較為(wei)迅速(su)，反映(ying)免(mian)(mian)稅業(ye)態在當(dang)前消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)環境下仍是最(zui)具(ju)吸引力的(de)渠道之一，疫后(hou)(hou)修復(fu)(fu)彈(dan)性可期(qi)。推薦(jian)(jian)龍(long)頭(tou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)(mian)，建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)海(hai)(hai)汽集團(tuan)(tuan)（海(hai)(hai)旅(lv)(lv)免(mian)(mian)稅）、海(hai)(hai)南(nan)發(fa)展(zhan)（海(hai)(hai)發(fa)控）。餐飲：長(chang)(chang)假期(qi)間(jian)(jian)居民消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)以(yi)本(ben)地(di)(di)本(ben)地(di)(di)為(wei)主，餐飲邊際復(fu)(fu)蘇(su)。美團(tuan)(tuan)統計的(de)數據顯示(shi)，“十(shi)一”黃金周本(ben)地(di)(di)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)占(zhan)比77.4%，長(chang)(chang)假期(qi)間(jian)(jian)本(ben)地(di)(di)業(ye)態日(ri)均(jun)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)額(e)同比2019年黃金周增長(chang)(chang)52%。上海(hai)(hai)7天假期(qi)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)餐飲線下消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)69.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)/同比+18.0%。重(zhong)點推薦(jian)(jian)剛(gang)需(xu)(xu)品類和一線品牌(pai)下沉市場(chang)的(de)開店(dian)(dian)進(jin)展(zhan)，推薦(jian)(jian)九(jiu)毛九(jiu)、海(hai)(hai)倫司、奈雪(xue)的(de)茶、同慶樓(lou)。酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)：海(hai)(hai)外酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)復(fu)(fu)蘇(su)延(yan)續，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)等待政策(ce)企穩。受(shou)益于(yu)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)行(xing)管(guan)控放(fang)松(song)各(ge)頭(tou)部酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)業(ye)績均(jun)明顯復(fu)(fu)蘇(su)。映(ying)射至國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)，我(wo)們認為(wei)短期(qi)主要矛(mao)盾仍在出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)行(xing)政策(ce)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)看國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)供需(xu)(xu)、競爭格局清晰(xi)，頭(tou)部酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)受(shou)益于(yu)供給出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)清+輕(qing)資產擴張+中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端升級，仍將是疫后(hou)(hou)行(xing)業(ye)復(fu)(fu)蘇(su)最(zui)大受(shou)益者，推薦(jian)(jian)錦江酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)/首旅(lv)(lv)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)/華住(zhu)集團(tuan)(tuan)-S/君亭酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)。出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)境游(you)(you)：香港(gang)10月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)入境政策(ce)有(you)望(wang)進(jin)一步放(fang)松(song)。建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)與香港(gang)、澳門(men)通關(guan)及恢復(fu)(fu)旅(lv)(lv)行(xing)社活動(dong)(dong)進(jin)展(zhan)。建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)眾信旅(lv)(lv)游(you)(you)（國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)境游(you)(you)旅(lv)(lv)行(xing)社龍(long)頭(tou)）、米奧會展(zhan)（國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)海(hai)(hai)外自辦(ban)展(zhan)會龍(long)頭(tou)）。旅(lv)(lv)游(you)(you)&新消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)：建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)智能健身鏡(jing)(jing)賽道，供需(xu)(xu)推動(dong)(dong)下國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)智能健身鏡(jing)(jing)滲(shen)透率有(you)望(wang)實(shi)現(xian)從0到1突破，建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)頭(tou)部智能健身鏡(jing)(jing)品牌(pai)ODM供應商康冠科技。此外，建(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)疫后(hou)(hou)增量空(kong)間(jian)(jian)較大的(de)天目湖，以(yi)及露營裝備龍(long)頭(tou)牧高笛。

風(feng)險提示：疫情、自(zi)然災害突(tu)發性因(yin)素；宏觀經濟下行風(feng)險；行業(ye)競爭(zheng)格局惡化風(feng)險。

每經頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

免(mian)責聲明：本文內容(rong)與數據(ju)僅供參考，不構成投資建議(yi)，使用前請核(he)實。據(ju)此操作，風(feng)險自(zi)擔。