每經AI快訊(xun)，中國銀河11月14日發布研報稱：給予家用電器推薦（維持）評級。

行(xing)情回(hui)顧：本周（11月6日-11月12日）家用電器(qi)（申(shen)(shen)萬）指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)上漲(zhang)0.70%，表現強于滬深(shen)300指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)（+0.07%）,收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)在申(shen)(shen)萬一(yi)級行(xing)業中位列第15位。截(jie)止11月12日，家電指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)累計(ji)年收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)為5.11%，跑贏滬深(shen)300指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)12.48個百分點。從家電行(xing)業各細分板(ban)塊來看，本周黑色(se)(se)家電/家電零部件||/小(xiao)家電/廚衛電器(qi)/家用電器(qi)/白色(se)(se)家電/照明設備||收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)分別為+5.77%/3.65%/1.34%/0.77%/0.70%/-0.69%/-0.36%，白電板(ban)塊勢大力(li)沉，拖(tuo)累行(xing)業整體表現。

雙十(shi)一”預售(shou)(shou)虹吸效應顯現(xian)，本周家(jia)電(dian)線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)表現(xian)平淡：根據奧維云網，2023年(nian)第45周（2023-10-30~2023-11-05），全國全品(pin)類家(jia)電(dian)線(xian)下銷(xiao)額(e)(e)(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)+3.3%，銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)-2.91%，均價(jia)(jia)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)-1.27%；全品(pin)類家(jia)電(dian)線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)額(e)(e)(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)-12.34%，銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)-22.75%，均價(jia)(jia)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)+13.47%，主要系10月24日雙十(shi)一”預售(shou)(shou)造成的(de)(de)消費前置(zhi)，以(yi)及去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)基(ji)數效應，線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)增(zeng)速承壓(ya)。其(qi)中(zhong)，大家(jia)電(dian)線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)降幅顯著，空調/冰(bing)箱(xiang)/洗(xi)衣機(ji)的(de)(de)線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)零(ling)售(shou)(shou)額(e)(e)(e)和銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)分別下降5.21%/4.5%、19.02%/26.91%、32.52%/37.17%。小家(jia)電(dian)中(zhong)，除了豆漿機(ji)需求復蘇，其(qi)余品(pin)類線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)均出(chu)現(xian)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)程度的(de)(de)下滑。環境電(dian)器中(zhong)，洗(xi)地機(ji)線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)均價(jia)(jia)較去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)大幅下滑508元，降幅達到17%，以(yi)價(jia)(jia)換量(liang)(liang)拉動線(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)20.18%，但銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)額(e)(e)(e)角度來看需求仍顯平淡。

受益于景氣(qi)復(fu)蘇(su)和(he)(he)業(ye)(ye)績改善(shan)，家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)投(tou)資(zi)情(qing)緒(xu)顯著(zhu)(zhu)回(hui)暖：過去(qu)三(san)年(nian)(nian)，由(you)于地產(chan)端需(xu)求(qiu)收縮、海外(wai)去(qu)庫等不(bu)利因素沖(chong)擊家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)情(qing)緒(xu)，公募基金(jin)對家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)配(pei)置(zhi)力度顯著(zhu)(zhu)降(jiang)低，隨著(zhu)(zhu)2023年(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)邊(bian)際復(fu)蘇(su)，公募基金(jin)對家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)個(ge)股投(tou)資(zi)熱情(qing)觸底回(hui)升(sheng)。截至(zhi)(zhi)2023年(nian)(nian)三(san)季度末，家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)重倉(cang)個(ge)股市(shi)值在(zai)公募基金(jin)持(chi)倉(cang)中占2.54%，較2023Q2增(zeng)加了0.23PCT，盡管Q3申萬家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)指數累計(ji)下(xia)(xia)跌4.27%，公募基金(jin)對家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)超配(pei)比(bi)(bi)例(li)（家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)持(chi)倉(cang)占比(bi)(bi)與全部(bu)A股中家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)市(shi)值占比(bi)(bi)的差值）小(xiao)(xiao)幅回(hui)升(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)0.78%，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)連(lian)續(xu)三(san)個(ge)季度維持(chi)小(xiao)(xiao)幅超配(pei)，投(tou)資(zi)情(qing)緒(xu)顯著(zhu)(zhu)好于2021年(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)2022年(nian)(nian)同期（除2021Q1外(wai)，其他時(shi)間均為低配(pei)），彰顯投(tou)資(zi)信(xin)心(xin)。從(cong)子板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)來看，公募基金(jin)對家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的配(pei)置(zhi)（2.54%）主(zhu)要集中在(zai)白電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)，截至(zhi)(zhi)三(san)季度末，白電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)配(pei)置(zhi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)環比(bi)(bi)提升(sheng)0.16PCT至(zhi)(zhi)1.69%，黑電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、小(xiao)(xiao)家(jia)(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、零部(bu)件板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)配(pei)置(zhi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)環比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)提升(sheng)0.02、0.10和(he)(he)0.09PCT，廚衛板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)持(chi)倉(cang)幾乎(hu)無變(bian)化(hua)，照(zhao)明(ming)板塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)配(pei)置(zhi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)小(xiao)(xiao)幅下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)了0.01PCT，配(pei)置(zhi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)變(bian)動(dong)與各細分行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)變(bian)化(hua)趨勢基本吻合。

投資建議：隨著(zhu)地(di)(di)產(chan)端筑(zhu)底改(gai)善和(he)促消費(fei)政策逐步發力，家電內需有望(wang)得(de)到支撐，疊加節(jie)慶(qing)(qing)促銷來(lai)臨，助力家電消費(fei)活力釋(shi)放。海外庫存逐漸去化(hua)、人民幣兌美元匯率走(zou)低(di)、海運費(fei)持續回落等利好因素(su)共振，出(chu)口(kou)改(gai)善態(tai)勢有望(wang)延續。從估值來(lai)看，板(ban)塊估值依然處于(yu)較低(di)位置，安(an)全邊(bian)際較高。建議關注三(san)條投資主線，一、有望(wang)受益于(yu)景氣改(gai)善的白(bai)電龍頭，推(tui)薦(jian)美的集(ji)團（000333.SZ）和(he)海爾智(zhi)家（600690.SH）；二(er)、有望(wang)受益于(yu)地(di)(di)產(chan)邊(bian)際改(gai)善的廚(chu)電，推(tui)薦(jian)老(lao)板(ban)電器(qi)（002508.SZ）；三(san)、國(guo)內外節(jie)慶(qing)(qing)促銷帶動景氣回升(sheng)的清(qing)潔電器(qi)，推(tui)薦(jian)石(shi)頭科技（688169.SH）。

風險提示(shi)：原(yuan)材料價格變動的(de)風險；房(fang)地產政策改(gai)善不及預期的(de)風險；消費復蘇不及預期的(de)風險。

每經(jing)頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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