每(mei)經AI快訊，2024年1月5日，廣發(fa)證券發(fa)布研報點(dian)評長(chang)江電(dian)力(li)（600900）。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)符合預期，烏白貢獻(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)量(liang)。根據經營公(gong)(gong)告，公(gong)(gong)司(si)2023年四座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1840.25億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)（同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-0.8%），六(liu)座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)2762.63億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)（同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+5.34%，我(wo)們(men)測算為2761.59億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)），其中Q4四座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)499.01億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)（同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+34.7%），六(liu)座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)729.26億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)（同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+29.2%）。2023年來水仍偏(pian)枯，與2022年接近，公(gong)(gong)司(si)四座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)基本持平，主要為烏白注入貢獻(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)量(liang)。

蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)進展良(liang)好，高水(shui)(shui)頭增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)。下半年來水(shui)(shui)恢(hui)(hui)復正常，公(gong)司(si)(si)各電(dian)(dian)站蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)至目(mu)標值，測算10月末蓄(xu)能同(tong)(tong)比偏(pian)高51億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，11-12月放水(shui)(shui)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)后，截(jie)至12月末測算公(gong)司(si)(si)蓄(xu)能同(tong)(tong)比偏(pian)高30億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)時三(san)峽(xia)等電(dian)(dian)站水(shui)(shui)位同(tong)(tong)比偏(pian)高，測算長江(jiang)電(dian)(dian)力24M1-5由于(yu)水(shui)(shui)頭變(bian)化可(ke)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)約40億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，測算蓄(xu)能增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加、水(shui)(shui)位恢(hui)(hui)復將為長江(jiang)電(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)74億(yi)(yi)度，同(tong)(tong)比電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅可(ke)達8.5%。與公(gong)司(si)(si)正常來水(shui)(shui)對應發(fa)電(dian)(dian)計劃相比，23年發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)低約300億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，則來水(shui)(shui)均值恢(hui)(hui)復后，疊加測算六庫聯調增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)效(xiao)益超100億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，公(gong)司(si)(si)仍然有較大的電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)和業績彈性(xing)。

電(dian)(dian)量(liang)提(ti)升(sheng)、利率(lv)回落，業績(ji)估值雙(shuang)擊(ji)可期(qi)。23年來水(shui)(shui)偏(pian)枯電(dian)(dian)量(liang)低基數(shu)，厄(e)爾(er)尼諾帶動來水(shui)(shui)恢(hui)復(fu)，蓄水(shui)(shui)已(yi)然恢(hui)復(fu)，聯(lian)合(he)調(diao)度優(you)勢將(jiang)顯，電(dian)(dian)量(liang)有望大幅提(ti)升(sheng)，根據公司年報，承諾十四(si)五(wu)70%分紅率(lv)，分紅提(ti)升(sheng)疊加(jia)利率(lv)回落期(qi)望股息率(lv)降(jiang)低，業績(ji)估值雙(shuang)擊(ji)可期(qi)。此外，公司電(dian)(dian)站推進擴(kuo)機增容、流(liu)域(yu)聯(lian)調(diao)增發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)、主導開(kai)發金沙江下(xia)游水(shui)(shui)風光基、推進抽水(shui)(shui)蓄能建設(she)，以及折(zhe)舊、財務費用下(xia)降(jiang)釋(shi)放(fang)利潤。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)龍頭仍有成長空間。

盈利預測與(yu)投資建議。預計公(gong)司(si)23~25年(nian)歸母凈利潤分別289/365/384億元，按(an)最新(xin)收盤價對應PE分別為20/16/15倍(bei)。來(lai)水(shui)好轉業績修復，十四五承諾70%分紅率(lv)。作為水(shui)電龍頭，參(can)考可比公(gong)司(si)，給予(yu)公(gong)司(si)24年(nian)20倍(bei)PE估值(zhi)，對應29.85元/股(gu)合理價值(zhi)，維持“買入”評級。

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險提示。來水波(bo)動；上網電價調整風(feng)(feng)(feng)險；投資收(shou)益(yi)不(bu)及預期風(feng)(feng)(feng)險。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 趙橋)