每經AI快訊，2024年(nian)1月10日(ri)，東吳(wu)證券發布(bu)研報點評廣汽集(ji)團（601238）。

投資要點

公司公告：廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)集(ji)團2023年(nian)12月(yue)（下(xia)文所提12月(yue)均為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2023年(nian)）乘用車產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)238,660輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)+19.49%/-3.64%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)258,941輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)+25.72%/+14.03%。其中(zhong)，1）廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)本田12月(yue)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)63,562輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+21.83%/-5.32%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)79,329輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+35.85%/+28.41%。2）廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)豐田12月(yue)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)92,861輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+16.56%/-0.30%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)97,408輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+31.29%/+13.27%。3）廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)傳祺12月(yue)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)30,983輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)-10.71%/-26.94%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)35,325輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)-7.00%/-5.08%。4）廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)埃安(an)12月(yue)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)50,459輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+83.58%/+14.39%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)45,947輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)+53.12%/+10.54%。全年(nian)來看(kan)，廣(guang)汽(qi)(qi)集(ji)團產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)252.9萬輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)+1.99%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)250.5萬輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)+2.93%。

集團整體批發環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)改善，埃(ai)安全年(nian)(nian)(nian)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+77%。1）分(fen)(fen)(fen)品牌來(lai)看，廣(guang)本批發同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)均(jun)有(you)改善，其(qi)中重(zhong)點車(che)型(xing)雅閣系列(lie)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)為23,392輛(liang)(liang)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)+37.06%。全年(nian)(nian)(nian)看廣(guang)本實現產量(liang)(liang)65.12萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-15.19%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)64.05萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-13.66%。廣(guang)豐12月(yue)(yue)(yue)批發同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)均(jun)上升，重(zhong)點車(che)型(xing)凱美瑞12月(yue)(yue)(yue)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)24,251輛(liang)(liang)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)+16.30%。全年(nian)(nian)(nian)看廣(guang)本實現產量(liang)(liang)95萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)5.87%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)95萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-5.47%。傳(chuan)祺12月(yue)(yue)(yue)產批環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)均(jun)下滑，全年(nian)(nian)(nian)看傳(chuan)祺實現產量(liang)(liang)40.43萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+8.24%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)40.65萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+12.12%。埃(ai)安2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)累計(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)48萬(wan)(wan)臺，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+77%。12月(yue)(yue)(yue)2日廣(guang)汽埃(ai)安攜手柬埔寨興(xing)輝汽車(che)宣布正式(shi)進軍柬埔寨市場。2）分(fen)(fen)(fen)車(che)輛(liang)(liang)類型(xing)來(lai)看，轎車(che)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)產量(liang)(liang)為80,803輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)-5.34%/-2.37%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)為98,300輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)+6.47%/+22.57%。SUV 12月(yue)(yue)(yue)產量(liang)(liang)為128,125輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)+39.04%/-5.10%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)為132,142輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)+44.90%/+6.85%。MPV 12月(yue)(yue)(yue)產量(liang)(liang)為29,732輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)+33.75%/-0.56%；銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)為28,499輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)+26.99%/+22.78%。

12月(yue)集(ji)團整(zheng)體去庫(ku)。根據我們自建庫(ku)存體系(xi)顯(xian)示，12月(yue)廣(guang)(guang)汽集(ji)團整(zheng)體去庫(ku)，企業當月(yue)庫(ku)存-20,281輛(liang)（較2023年11月(yue)），廣(guang)(guang)本/廣(guang)(guang)豐/傳祺/埃安企業端(duan)庫(ku)存分別-15,167/-4,547/-4,342/+4,512輛(liang)（較2023年11月(yue)）。

盈利(li)預測與(yu)投資評(ping)級：自主能源生態產業鏈實(shi)現閉環布局，合(he)資品牌電動(dong)轉型加速。我們維(wei)(wei)持(chi)2023-2025年廣汽集團歸母(mu)凈利(li)潤預期分別為65.2/71.7/86.4億(yi)元，對應PE為13/12/10倍。維(wei)(wei)持(chi)“買入”評(ping)級。

風(feng)險提示：乘用車需求復蘇低于預期(qi)；新能源滲透率(lv)提升不及預期(qi)等

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲(sheng)明：本文內容與數(shu)據(ju)僅(jin)供(gong)參(can)考，不構成投資建(jian)議(yi)，使(shi)用(yong)前請核實。據(ju)此操作，風險自(zi)擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)