每(mei)經AI快訊，中國銀河04月08日發布研報稱：維持有色金屬推薦（維持）評級。

市場行情(qing)回顧：截止到4月3日周(zhou)三收市：本(ben)周(zhou)上(shang)證指(zhi)(zhi)數上(shang)漲0.92%，報(bao)3069.30點；滬深300指(zhi)(zhi)數上(shang)漲0.86%，報(bao)3567.80點；SW有(you)色金(jin)(jin)屬行業指(zhi)(zhi)數本(ben)周(zhou)上(shang)漲6.81%，報(bao)4851.44點，漲跌(die)幅(fu)(fu)排名(ming)(ming)第1名(ming)(ming)。分(fen)子(zi)行業來看(kan)，本(ben)周(zhou)有(you)色金(jin)(jin)屬行業5個二級子(zi)行業中，工(gong)業金(jin)(jin)屬、貴金(jin)(jin)屬、小(xiao)金(jin)(jin)屬、能源金(jin)(jin)屬、金(jin)(jin)屬新材料較上(shang)周(zhou)變(bian)動幅(fu)(fu)度分(fen)別為+5.86%、+5.24%、+7.66%、+10.99%、+3.18%。

重點金屬(shu)價格數據：本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)上期所(suo)銅、鋁、鋅、鉛(qian)(qian)、鎳(nie)、錫分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)73,980元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、19,925元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、21,270元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、16,460元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、133,450元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、227,900元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)幅(fu)度(du)分別(bie)為(wei)+2.28%、+1.55%、+1.84%、-1.61%、+2.33%、+0.78%；倫敦LME銅、鋁、鋅、鉛(qian)(qian)、鎳(nie)、錫分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)9,348美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、2,451美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、2,622美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、2,127美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、17,730美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、28,620美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)幅(fu)度(du)分別(bie)為(wei)+5.42%、+4.88%、+7.50%、+3.50%、+5.86%、+4.26%。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)上期所(suo)黃(huang)金、白(bai)銀分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)541.52元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/克(ke)、6,791.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千克(ke)，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)幅(fu)度(du)分別(bie)為(wei)+3.12%、+5.71%；COMEX黃(huang)金、白(bai)銀分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)2,349.10美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/盎司、27.60美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/盎司，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)幅(fu)度(du)分別(bie)為(wei)+4.95%、+10.77%。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)指數收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)104.30，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)-0.20%。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)氧(yang)化(hua)鐠(pu)釹(nv)(nv)、氧(yang)化(hua)鋱、氧(yang)化(hua)鏑(di)、燒結釹(nv)(nv)鐵硼(peng)N35毛(mao)坯(pi)分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)36.55萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、557.5萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、187萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，152.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)+2.81%、+3.15%、+2.19%、0.00%。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)電(dian)池(chi)級(ji)碳(tan)酸鋰(li)(li)、工業級(ji)碳(tan)酸鋰(li)(li)、電(dian)池(chi)級(ji)氫氧(yang)化(hua)鋰(li)(li)、澳(ao)洲鋰(li)(li)精礦價格分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)111,500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、106,000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、105,000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、1,075美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)+2.29%、+2.42%、+0.48%、0.00%。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)國內電(dian)解鈷(gu)、0.998MB電(dian)解鈷(gu)、四氧(yang)化(hua)三鈷(gu)、硫酸鈷(gu)分別(bie)收(shou)(shou)于(yu)(yu)20.5萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、16.88美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/磅、13.30萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、3.30萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)未發生變(bian)化(hua)。

投資建(jian)議：美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)ISM制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)PMI錄得50.3%，高(gao)(gao)于市場(chang)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)48.4%；美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)非農超(chao)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)激(ji)增30.3萬(wan)人，創(chuang)(chuang)下(xia)(xia)去年(nian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)以(yi)來的(de)(de)(de)最大(da)(da)增幅，遠超(chao)21.4萬(wan)人的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)中(zhong)值；美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)失業(ye)(ye)率(lv)(lv)3.8%，符(fu)合(he)市場(chang)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)，較(jiao)(jiao)前(qian)值3.9%有所(suo)下(xia)(xia)滑。美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)、就業(ye)(ye)數據超(chao)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)，使市場(chang)對于美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)(de)降(jiang)息預(yu)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)(xia)行(xing)，CMEFedWatch顯示市場(chang)判斷(duan)美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)降(jiang)息的(de)(de)(de)概率(lv)(lv)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)至(zhi)53%。但(dan)中(zhong)東地區(qu)(qu)地緣沖突(tu)不(bu)斷(duan)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)級仍(reng)使市場(chang)避險情緒升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)溫，驅動黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)價格創(chuang)(chuang)下(xia)(xia)2330美(mei)(mei)(mei)元/盎司的(de)(de)(de)歷史(shi)新高(gao)(gao)。盡管短(duan)期(qi)(qi)降(jiang)息預(yu)期(qi)(qi)波動，但(dan)中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)來看美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)主(zhu)席鮑(bao)威(wei)爾仍(reng)然(ran)明確今年(nian)開始降(jiang)息是合(he)適的(de)(de)(de)，在(zai)(zai)降(jiang)息周(zhou)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)(xia)金(jin)價或將(jiang)(jiang)繼續(xu)(xu)上漲(zhang)。且各國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)央(yang)行(xing)對于黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)戰(zhan)略儲(chu)(chu)備需求持續(xu)(xu)增加(jia)也(ye)為(wei)金(jin)價提供有力支撐(cheng)，截至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)底，全(quan)球黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)儲(chu)(chu)備前(qian)十國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家（美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、德國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、意大(da)(da)利、法國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、俄羅斯、中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、瑞士、日本、印(yin)度、荷(he)蘭(lan)）的(de)(de)(de)黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)儲(chu)(chu)備為(wei)24260.63噸，較(jiao)(jiao)2月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)上升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)15.58噸，連續(xu)(xu)17個月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)增加(jia)。建(jian)議關注A股黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)板(ban)(ban)塊龍頭山東黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)（600547）、中(zhong)金(jin)黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)（600489）、銀泰黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)（000975）、赤峰黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)（600988）、湖南黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)（002155）。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)PMI上行(xing)至(zhi)50.8%，時(shi)隔5個月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)后(hou)重返擴張(zhang)(zhang)區(qu)(qu)間(jian)；美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)ISM制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)PMI上行(xing)至(zhi)50.3%，繼2022年(nian)10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)后(hou)首(shou)次突(tu)破枯(ku)榮線(xian)；數據GO統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)(ji)世界各國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)PMI處于擴張(zhang)(zhang)狀態的(de)(de)(de)占比上升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)71%，創(chuang)(chuang)下(xia)(xia)21個月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)以(yi)來新高(gao)(gao)。全(quan)球經濟(ji)復蘇的(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢下(xia)(xia)，銅(tong)需求預(yu)期(qi)(qi)有望提升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。而因銅(tong)礦原料(liao)緊(jin)(jin)缺冶(ye)(ye)(ye)煉加(jia)工(gong)(gong)費(fei)快速下(xia)(xia)滑，2024Q2國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)銅(tong)冶(ye)(ye)(ye)煉廠將(jiang)(jiang)進入密集檢(jian)修(xiu)期(qi)(qi)。據SMM調研統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)(ji)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)冶(ye)(ye)(ye)煉廠檢(jian)修(xiu)涉及(ji)粗煉產能121萬(wan)噸，這或將(jiang)(jiang)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)銅(tong)產量(liang)環比減少3.5%，出現精銅(tong)產量(liang)拐點。而5-6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)仍(reng)有大(da)(da)量(liang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)銅(tong)冶(ye)(ye)(ye)煉廠要(yao)進行(xing)檢(jian)修(xiu)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產量(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)持續(xu)(xu)下(xia)(xia)行(xing)。短(duan)期(qi)(qi)精銅(tong)供需或將(jiang)(jiang)改善，中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)銅(tong)精礦供應緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)(zhang)將(jiang)(jiang)不(bu)可(ke)避免，建(jian)議繼續(xu)(xu)關注銅(tong)礦板(ban)(ban)塊龍頭紫金(jin)礦業(ye)(ye)（601899）、洛陽(yang)鉬業(ye)(ye)（603993）、銅(tong)陵有色（000630）、西部礦業(ye)(ye)（601168）、金(jin)誠(cheng)信（603979）。春節(jie)假期(qi)(qi)后(hou)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)消費(fei)走強，SMM統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)(ji)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)加(jia)工(gong)(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)綜合(he)PMI上行(xing)至(zhi)68.8%，回升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)枯(ku)榮線(xian)以(yi)上且增幅較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)。需求較(jiao)(jiao)好表現下(xia)(xia)，Mysteel統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)(ji)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)底最后(hou)一周(zhou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)社(she)總庫存(cun)(cun)90.2萬(wan)噸，環比下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.1萬(wan)噸，成(cheng)為(wei)首(shou)個國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)有色金(jin)屬大(da)(da)宗(zong)商(shang)品(pin)在(zai)(zai)春節(jie)后(hou)形成(cheng)去庫存(cun)(cun)的(de)(de)(de)品(pin)種。而4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)作為(wei)傳統(tong)(tong)消費(fei)旺(wang)季(ji)，SMM調研多數鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)加(jia)工(gong)(gong)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產、訂單(dan)將(jiang)(jiang)持續(xu)(xu)好轉，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)加(jia)工(gong)(gong)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)或將(jiang)(jiang)繼續(xu)(xu)上行(xing)。而供應方面云南復產產能約20萬(wan)，且4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)初海外電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)進口(kou)窗口(kou)關閉，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產量(liang)抬升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)(jiao)慢。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)或已進入持續(xu)(xu)去庫存(cun)(cun)階段，疊加(jia)宏觀(guan)方面利好支撐(cheng)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)價上行(xing)。建(jian)議關注云鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)股份（000807）、中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)（601600）、神火股份（000933）、天山鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)（002532）。

風險提(ti)示(shi)：1）國內(nei)經濟復(fu)蘇(su)不及預(yu)(yu)期的(de)風險；2）美聯(lian)儲加息超出預(yu)(yu)期的(de)風險；3）有色金屬價格大幅(fu)下跌的(de)風險。

每(mei)經(jing)頭(tou)條(tiao)（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 胡玲)

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