每(mei)經AI快訊，中國銀河04月01日發布研報稱：給予電力設備及新能源推薦（維持）評級。

行(xing)情回顧：本周(zhou)(zhou)滬(hu)深300指數(shu)漲(zhang)幅為(wei)(wei)-0.21%；創(chuang)業(ye)板指數(shu)漲(zhang)幅為(wei)(wei)-2.73%；電新指數(shu)本周(zhou)(zhou)漲(zhang)幅-1.25%，行(xing)業(ye)排名(ming)第18。按照三級子行(xing)業(ye)拆分(fen)(fen)來看，鋰電池/綜(zong)合能(neng)源設備/輸變電設備漲(zhang)幅前(qian)三，分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)0.99%/0.21%/-0.59%。估(gu)值分(fen)(fen)析(xi)：估(gu)值已處(chu)于歷(li)(li)(li)史(shi)低位(wei)，預期收益率(lv)明(ming)顯增高(gao)。2024年(nian)3月29日(ri)，電力設備與新能(neng)源行(xing)業(ye)（CI）市盈(ying)(ying)率(lv)（TTM）為(wei)(wei)19.35倍，為(wei)(wei)10年(nian)歷(li)(li)(li)史(shi)估(gu)值分(fen)(fen)位(wei)點的(de)2.75%，處(chu)于歷(li)(li)(li)史(shi)底部區域。分(fen)(fen)子行(xing)業(ye)看，2024年(nian)3月29日(ri)，電網/儲能(neng)/太陽能(neng)/新能(neng)源車/風電行(xing)業(ye)的(de)市盈(ying)(ying)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)18.18倍/20.29倍/11.46倍/22.60倍/27.38倍，為(wei)(wei)10年(nian)歷(li)(li)(li)史(shi)估(gu)值分(fen)(fen)位(wei)點的(de)7.06%/2.98%/1.96%/4.94%/43.48%。

行業(ye)數(shu)據(ju)：鋰(li)價(jia)微跌。Wind數(shu)據(ju)顯示(shi),截(jie)至3月22日，碳酸(suan)鋰(li)10.96萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸（-2.71%）；三元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)622前驅(qu)體(ti)7.95萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸（0.00%），磷(lin)酸(suan)鐵鋰(li)前驅(qu)體(ti)1.06萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸（+0.00%）；三元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)622正極13.40萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸（0.00%）；六氟磷(lin)酸(suan)鋰(li)7.10萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸（+0.00%）。2光伏：產業(ye)鏈(lian)價(jia)格進入景氣下行周期。Solarzoom數(shu)據(ju)顯示(shi)，隨著產能釋放，原材料一線廠商硅(gui)(gui)料成(cheng)交價(jia)自2022年底開始(shi)一路下行。硅(gui)(gui)料正式(shi)進入降價(jia)周期，中下游產業(ye)鏈(lian)價(jia)格同步反饋。截(jie)至3月28日，特級致密硅(gui)(gui)料69元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千克（-1.4%）；單晶(jing)(jing)182硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)1.85元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)（-2.6%）；單晶(jing)(jing)210硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)2.55元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)（-5.6%）；單晶(jing)(jing)PERC182電池片(pian)0.37元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/W（-2.6%）；單晶(jing)(jing)PERC210電池片(pian)0.37元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/W（-2.6%）；單晶(jing)(jing)PERC組件單面0.88元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/W（0%）；鍍膜玻(bo)璃3.2mm26.0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/平方米（2.0%）；EVA膠膜7.35元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/平方米（0%）。

重要新(xin)聞：1）“寧電(dian)入湘”特高(gao)壓工程（婁底(di)段）將(jiang)于今年建成投產；2）北(bei)京、上海(hai)、河北(bei)、天津、山西等多個省市發布2024年重點項目名單(dan)；3）2023年全球(qiu)風(feng)電(dian)整機(ji)商新(xin)增(zeng)裝機(ji)排名出爐；4）日本內閣敲定修正案專屬經濟區EEZ內可建海(hai)上風(feng)電(dian)；5）2024年1-2月我國光伏新(xin)增(zeng)裝機(ji)創新(xin)高(gao)，達36.72GW；6）四部門：推動400Wh/kg級航空鋰(li)電(dian)池投入量(liang)產。

重要公(gong)告(gao)：1）福萊特(te)、盛(sheng)弘股(gu)份(fen)、南網科技(ji)、良(liang)信股(gu)份(fen)、宏發(fa)(fa)(fa)股(gu)份(fen)、金(jin)風科技(ji)、電氣(qi)風電、上海電氣(qi)、國電南自(zi)、起帆電纜、長高電新發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)2023年年度報(bao)告(gao)；2）晶澳科技(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)項目投資公(gong)告(gao)；3）天合光能發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)股(gu)權轉讓公(gong)告(gao)；4）貝特(te)瑞發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)股(gu)份(fen)回購(gou)公(gong)告(gao)。s。

最新(xin)觀點(dian)(dian)與(yu)(yu)投資(zi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)：電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網：目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)已(yi)有北(bei)(bei)京、上(shang)海(hai)(hai)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)、天津(jin)、山西(xi)等多個(ge)省市發(fa)(fa)布(bu)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)名(ming)單(dan)。據北(bei)(bei)極星輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網不(bu)完全(quan)(quan)統計(ji)，共有34個(ge)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)入(ru)圍重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)名(ming)單(dan)，28個(ge)超高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)入(ru)圍重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)名(ming)單(dan)，16個(ge)特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)入(ru)圍重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)名(ming)單(dan)。湖南婁底(di)召開2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)推進會(hui)議(yi)，“寧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)入(ru)湘”特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)工(gong)(gong)程（婁底(di)段）將于今年(nian)(nian)(nian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)成投產。我(wo)們看好新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)向好發(fa)(fa)展。特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)作為主網基礎，依(yi)舊是投資(zi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)直流開工(gong)(gong)規模為歷史年(nian)(nian)(nian)度最高(gao)(gao)(gao)值，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)/2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)直流特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)核準開工(gong)(gong)4條(tiao)/4條(tiao)。預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2024-2025期(qi)(qi)(qi)間柔(rou)直總投資(zi)或(huo)達(da)1,005億元(yuan)，設(she)備總投資(zi)/核心零部件(jian)換流閥投資(zi)或(huo)為603億/146億。重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)關(guan)注(zhu)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)南瑞(rui)（600406.SH）、許(xu)繼(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣（000400.SZ）、特(te)變電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)（600089.SH），中國(guo)西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)（601179.SH）、平高(gao)(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣（600312.SH）、四方股(gu)份（601126.SH）等。建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)南瑞(rui)、許(xu)繼(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣（000400.SZ）。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)：我(wo)們認為當(dang)前(qian)(qian)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)局勢(shi)(shi)復雜變化將加(jia)速(su)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型(xing)(xing)，積(ji)極看待海(hai)(hai)外(wai)光儲(chu)市場需求，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)盈利較(jiao)強(qiang)、品牌(pai)渠道(dao)占優(you)的(de)逆變器企(qi)業(ye)(ye)。國(guo)內2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)超45GWh成績亮眼，24年(nian)(nian)(nian)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)依(yi)舊是增(zeng)速(su)最高(gao)(gao)(gao)賽(sai)道(dao)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)競(jing)爭與(yu)(yu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)長(chang)共存，國(guo)內招標(biao)趨嚴，看好具備規模、品牌(pai)優(you)勢(shi)(shi)的(de)頭(tou)部企(qi)業(ye)(ye)以及建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)提(ti)前(qian)(qian)關(guan)注(zhu)長(chang)時儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)領域，如(ru)固德(de)威（688390.SH）、德(de)業(ye)(ye)股(gu)份（605117SH）、派能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)科技(ji)(ji)（688063.SH）、陽(yang)光電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)（300274.SZ）等。光伏：23年(nian)(nian)(nian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)基數(shu)(shu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)24年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)速(su)大(da)概(gai)率將下(xia)(xia)(xia)臺階(jie)。當(dang)前(qian)(qian)價格(ge)均處(chu)于歷史低位，全(quan)(quan)產業(ye)(ye)鏈毛利超跌(die)至負值，供(gong)給端出(chu)(chu)清信號已(yi)經頻現，積(ji)極看好24H1光伏迎來周期(qi)(qi)(qi)上(shang)行(xing)的(de)機(ji)(ji)會(hui)。推薦成本優(you)勢(shi)(shi)大(da)、N型(xing)(xing)料(liao)出(chu)(chu)貨順利的(de)硅(gui)料(liao)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)，堅持看好HJT長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)展機(ji)(ji)會(hui)，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)與(yu)(yu)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)術綁定較(jiao)強(qiang)的(de)輔材企(qi)業(ye)(ye)，如(ru)通威股(gu)份（600438.SH）、東方日升（300118.SZ）、協鑫科技(ji)(ji)（3800.HK）等。鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)：最新(xin)碳酸鋰價格(ge)探底(di)回升，產業(ye)(ye)鏈盈利修(xiu)復有望實(shi)現。我(wo)們預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)銷量1186萬輛(liang)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)增(zeng)速(su)進一步下(xia)(xia)(xia)臺階(jie)至25%；海(hai)(hai)外(wai)市場滲(shen)透率提(ti)升空間更大(da)。未來競(jing)爭加(jia)劇(ju)下(xia)(xia)(xia)，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)注(zhu)前(qian)(qian)期(qi)(qi)(qi)調(diao)整較(jiao)深、出(chu)(chu)海(hai)(hai)布(bu)局領先的(de)材料(liao)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)，如(ru)當(dang)升科技(ji)(ji)（300073.SZ）、容百(bai)科技(ji)(ji)（688005.SH）、天賜(si)材料(liao)（002709.SZ）、貝(bei)特(te)瑞(rui)等（835185.BJ）。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)：彭博(bo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)財經近日發(fa)(fa)布(bu)數(shu)(shu)據顯示(shi)，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量為118GW，同增(zeng)36%。其(qi)中陸風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)107GW，同增(zeng)37%；海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)11GW，同增(zeng)25%。中國(guo)市場77GW的(de)強(qiang)勁裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)為主要貢獻，中國(guo)以外(wai)的(de)市場同比僅上(shang)升8%，但市場增(zeng)長(chang)即將加(jia)速(su)。得益于美國(guo)通脹削(xue)減法案的(de)實(shi)施(shi)，近期(qi)(qi)(qi)美國(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)機(ji)(ji)訂單(dan)已(yi)有所增(zeng)長(chang)。在歐洲(zhou)(zhou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)核準改(gai)革的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)下(xia)(xia)(xia)，德(de)國(guo)等國(guo)家已(yi)核準的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)數(shu)(shu)量正在增(zeng)加(jia)，歐洲(zhou)(zhou)國(guo)家將在2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)進行(xing)約50GW的(de)海(hai)(hai)上(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)競(jing)標(biao)。近期(qi)(qi)(qi)，江(jiang)蘇海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)審批(pi)加(jia)速(su)、陽(yang)江(jiang)青洲(zhou)(zhou)五、六、七(qi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)規劃(hua)批(pi)前(qian)(qian)公示(shi)，浙江(jiang)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)等省陸續(xu)發(fa)(fa)布(bu)24年(nian)(nian)(nian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)清單(dan)，上(shang)海(hai)(hai)啟動5.8GW海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)競(jing)配(pei)，其(qi)中深遠海(hai)(hai)4.3GW。我(wo)們預(yu)(yu)計(ji)海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)/2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)10-12GW/16-20GW，深遠海(hai)(hai)趨勢(shi)(shi)不(bu)變。從風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)角度看，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)關(guan)注(zhu)東方電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜（603606.SH）、天順風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)（002531.SZ）、三一重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)（688349.SH）等。

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)提示：行(xing)業(ye)政策(ce)不及(ji)預期(qi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；新技術進展不及(ji)預期(qi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；資源品或零部件短缺導致原材料(liao)價格暴漲(zhang)、企業(ye)經營困難的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；海外政局(ju)動蕩(dang)、貿易環境惡化(hua)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。本周(zhou)滬(hu)深(shen)300指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數漲(zhang)幅為(wei)(wei)-0.21%；創業(ye)板指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數漲(zhang)幅為(wei)(wei)-2.73%；電新指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數本周(zhou)漲(zhang)幅-1.25%，行(xing)業(ye)排名第18。按(an)照三(san)級(ji)子行(xing)業(ye)拆分(fen)來(lai)看，鋰電池/綜(zong)合能源設備(bei)/輸變電設備(bei)漲(zhang)幅前(qian)三(san)，分(fen)別為(wei)(wei)0.99%/0.21%/-0.59%。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王瀚黎)

免(mian)責(ze)聲(sheng)明：本(ben)文內容與數據僅供參考，不構成投資建議(yi)，使用(yong)前請核實(shi)。據此操作，風險自擔。